About: An Efficient COVID-19 Prediction Model Validated with the Cases of China, Italy and Spain: Total or Partial Lockdowns?

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About: An Efficient COVID-19 Prediction Model Validated with the Cases of China, Italy and Spain: Total or Partial Lockdowns? Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	An Efficient COVID-19 Prediction Model Validated with the Cases of China, Italy and Spain: Total or Partial Lockdowns?
Creator	Perez-Bernabeu, Elena Peydro, Miguel Sanchez-Caballero, Samuel Selles, Miguel
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	The present work develops an accurate prediction model of the COVID-19 pandemic, capable not only of fitting data with a high regression coefficient but also to predict the overall infections and the infection peak day as well. The model is based on the Verhulst equation, which has been used to fit the data of the COVID-19 spread in China, Italy, and Spain. This model has been used to predict both the infection peak day, and the total infected people in Italy and Spain. With this prediction model, the overall infections, the infection peak, and date can accurately be predicted one week before they occur. According to the study, the infection peak took place on 23 March in Italy, and on 29 March in Spain. Moreover, the influence of the total and partial lockdowns has been studied, without finding any meaningful difference in the disease spread. However, the infected population, and the rate of new infections at the start of the lockdown, seem to play an important role in the infection spread. The developed model is not only an important tool to predict the disease spread, but also gives some significant clues about the main factors that affect to the COVID-19 spread, and quantifies the effects of partial and total lockdowns as well.
has issue date	2020-05-20(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.3390/jcm9051547
bibo:pmid	32443871
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	05aa3a0fa701941060d843493a83c7186eff3c33
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9051547
resource representing a document's title	An Efficient COVID-19 Prediction Model Validated with the Cases of China, Italy and Spain: Total or Partial Lockdowns?
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7290738
has PubMed identifier	32443871
schema:publication	J Clin Med
resource representing a document's body	covid:05aa3a0fa701941060d843493a83c7186eff3c33#body_text
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